extreme optimism or extreme fatigue?

I begin pretty much every night thinking, tonight is going to be the night that Oscar (and therefore, I) sleeps well! And I really believe it. Every night.

Tonight my rationale is that he was awake for most of the time during the past 6 hours, so surely he must be tired. And, he cried quite a bit of it, so SURELY he must be tired. Never mind that it might also mean that something is really bothering his tummy or upsetting him and why would the next 6 hours be drastically different?

This is the mind of an extreme optimist. Or an extremely sleep deprived person. Or an extremely sleep deprived optimist.